Ether Window
A 0–100 accumulation score. Not a price target.
Live · week of Sep 21
Stretched from 27% to 29% above a rising 200-day.
Live score
41/100
Sep 27, 2026 · not a target
No edge. Weekly DCA is a habit, not a call.
↑9 in 7 days · 30-day path · 0–100
Score rose 9 in 7 days as price stretched further above the 200-day.
Not a target. Weekly DCA is a habit, not a call.
Spot
$2,706
50-week
$2,441
+10.9%
MVRV
1.15
Realized
$2,355
Log path
Undervalued 32%
200-day
$2,101
+28.8%
What’s in the score — 200-day, 50-week, MVRV, realized, log path, positioning.
Daily candles, 50- and 200-day averages, realized price. Sage is below the 200-day; rose is extended above it.
Green leans cheap, yellow is fair, red leans hot. Weights renormalize if a feed is down.
Trend
red. Distance from 200-day
+6.56 ATR
28.8% above the 200-day (6.56 ATR). Golden cross 27d ago.
red. Distance from 50-week
+10.9%
10.9% above the 50-week ($2,441). Weekly trend is the cycle compass — below it has historically been a better add.
Valuation
yellow. MVRV
1.15
Between 1 and 1.5: mid-cycle, not cheap, not euphoric.
yellow. MVRV Z-score
0.31
Normalized cycle oscillator. Below 0 is discounted vs ETH’s own history; above ~2 is stretched.
red. ETH/BTC vs 200-day
+8.7%
ETH/BTC is 8.7% above its 200-day — ETH already leading.
Positioning
green. Exchange net flow (7d)
−269k ETH
268585 ETH net left exchanges over 7d. Leaving = accumulation; entering = potential sell-side.
green. Funding + open interest
0.0048%
8h funding 0.0048% (longs pay shorts). OI +5.7% over 7d.
red. Fear & Greed
70 Greed
Greed at 70. Sentiment, not valuation — useful as a crowd thermometer.
Activity
red. Issuance vs burn
net +2927/d
Burn 17 vs issuance 2944 ETH/day (net +2927). 35.7% of supply is staked.
green. L2 TVL
$9.7B
L2 TVL $9.7B. Usage is a health check, not a cheapness signal.
Spot is not below the 200-day. Last troughs of at least 10% below, ≥90 days apart. n = 3.
Sep 6, 2024
$2,224
−31.4% vs 200-day · rising
Jun 22, 2025
$2,228
−14.1% vs 200-day · falling
Feb 5, 2026
$1,823
−49.8% vs 200-day · rising
Median 90d (n=3): +70.3% · Median 180d (n=3): +2.5%. Small n — not a picked winners list.
Day 268 of ~1461 in the 2026–29 ETH price cycle (2018–21, 2022–25, 2026–29). Gain is cycle low → subsequent high. Drawdown is the prior peak → this cycle’s low. Not a schedule.
Day in cycle
268
vs 50-week
+10.9%
This cycle
0.90×
Last cycle, this day
0.35×
Log price from 2018. Sage dots are cycle lows, rose dots are subsequent highs. The 50-week average is the cycle trend line — weekly closes, 50 weeks.
Tap a high or low for the print.
2018–21
Start Feb 1, 2018 · $1,019
Low → high
Prior peak
2022–25
Start Jan 1, 2022 · $3,761
Low → high
Prior peak
2026–29 · so far
Start Jan 1, 2026 · $3,001
Low → high
Prior peak
Price as a multiple of each cycle’s starting print, aligned by days since that cycle began. 2018–21, 2022–25, 2026–29.
Power law: log₁₀(price) = -4.40 + 2.22 · log₁₀(days since 30 Jul 2015). n = 4047 daily closes. Bands are ±1σ and ±2σ of the residual — a fit to history, not a target.
Undervalued
32%
Fair value
$3,962
Residual
−0.49σ
Inside ±0.5σ of the fit. The path is a description of history, not a magnet.
Weekly DCA plus an optional lump at today’s print. Avg cost vs the 200-day and realized price.